Thinking In Bets Annie Duke Pdf Link May 2026

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Focus on the quality of your choices, not the results. A smart decision can lead to a bad outcome due to luck, and vice versa.
Example: A wise investment might fail due to market volatility, but it’s not a poor decision.

Probabilistic Thinking:

Shifting away from "right or wrong" and toward percentages. Acknowledging "I'm 60% sure" allows for more accurate decision-making and openness to new data. thinking in bets annie duke pdf link

Backcasting & Premortems

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